noun · first recorded 1838 · status: emerging
s-curve
1.The curve where adoption, production, or progress starts slow, goes vertical, then runs out of people to impress. In SF, every flat line is merely the bottom of one.
“We’re still at the bottom of the S-curve,” the founder said, rotating a flat retention chart until it looked optimistic.
01Origin
The underlying model begins with Belgian mathematician Pierre-François Verhulst, who introduced the logistic equation for constrained population growth in 1838 and named the logistic curve in the 1840s. He was modeling populations, not explaining why your startup has twelve users. ([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369848604000676?utm_source=openai))
Gabriel Tarde connected S-shaped diffusion to innovations around the start of the twentieth century, and Everett Rogers made innovation adoption theory canonical with Diffusion of Innovations in 1962. Richard Foster carried the S-curve into technology strategy in the 1980s; Silicon Valley later applied it freely to products, platforms, markets, AI, and Tesla production ramps. ([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/diffusion-of-technology?utm_source=openai))
02Notable sightings
PlanB · @100trillionUSDArgued that new technologies such as Bitcoin follow a logistic S-curve and remain in exponential growth until roughly 50 percent adoption.
Elon Musk · @elonmuskSaid initial production follows an S-curve, making new Cybercab and Optimus production agonizingly slow before it becomes extremely fast.
03Spread the ism
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